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Though most are not space powers, many are likely to become so in the future, so their buy-in is important. Many non-Western countries would prefer a binding treaty, says Daniel Porras of SWF.
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The European Union has instead proposed a voluntary code of conduct. They argue that it is impossible to define a space weapon-anything that manoeuvres in orbit could serve as one-and that it would be easy to cheat. Both are keen to prevent America from deploying space-based anti-missile systems which might threaten their own nuclear forces. Russia and China would like a formal treaty banning all weapons in space.
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The trickier and more pressing issue, he says, is clarifying the day-to-day rules in peacetime, which might help avert a conflict in the first place. Hitoshi Nasu, a director of the Woomera project, says that-perhaps surprisingly-big countries are genuinely interested in complying with international law in war, if only to deprive their rivals of an excuse to break the rules. Both hope to publish their documents next year.
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The Manual on International Law Applicable to Military Uses of Outer Space ( MILAMOS) is being spearheaded by McGill University, in Montreal, and a separate Woomera Manual by the University of Adelaide. Legal experts are now attempting to do this for space.
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In other domains of war, like naval conflict, legal manuals spell out what is and is not permissible.
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But how to apply such ideas in a place with few humans is not always obvious. International humanitarian law is based on principles such as distinction (between combatants and civilians) and proportionality (between civilian harm and military advantage). Most countries accept that, in wartime, a body of existing laws known as international humanitarian law would apply, as on Earth-something America confirmed in its “Spacepower” doctrine, published on August 10th. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 requires states to consult each other on actions that “would cause potentially harmful interference”, though the rule has rarely been heeded. Enough debris could lead to a chain reaction known as Kessler syndrome, which could render entire swathes of near-Earth space unusable for decades.įor now, there are no widely accepted answers to any of these questions. The more debris, the greater the likelihood of accidental collisions with other satellites, which generates more debris in turn. Much of the debris from China’s 2007 test, for instance, will still be in space at the turn of the next century. Perhaps the biggest difference between space war and terrestrial war is how long the consequences can last. Blowing up a military one, meanwhile, might or might not constitute an indiscriminate (and hence illegal) attack, depending on whether it could have been disabled by other means and how much debris was produced. Michael Schmitt, a law scholar, and Kieran Tinkler, a professor at the US Naval War College, say it is unclear whether jamming a civilian satellite would violate the general prohibition on attacking civilian objects. Then there is the question of what counts as an attack. Over the past decade, America’s armed forces have put payloads on three commercial satellites, and plan to pay Japan to host others on its own navigation satellites. Some satellites, such as America’s GPS constellation, blur the distinction between military and civilian assets. They must grapple with several thorny issues that make space war different from the terrestrial sort. Alarmed by the risks, several groups of diplomats and lawyers are trying to change that, and work out how to extend the laws that cover Earth-bound war into orbit. There is little in the way of law or custom to restrain this new arms race. New methods of attack are being tested, including lasers and cyber-attacks.
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America, Russia and China have all manoeuvred their satellites close to others, sometimes provocatively so. India conducted its first kinetic test in 2019. China has conducted ten tests over the past 15 years, including a kinetic one in 2007 that created a great deal of space debris. But new competitors, and new technologies, mean anti-satellite warfare is a hot topic once again.